Calculated Risk updates with the latest Kennedy-Greenspan numbers for Home Equity Withdrawal (aka Home Equity Loans).
From a high in 2005-2006 of nearly 10% of disposal household income (think about that for a second), we now see 0.3% in the last quarter. This is a massive change in domestic consumer spending. In my view, unemployment isn't the only indicator one should look at to understand recession.
A second thing that's been rattling around my head for a while: I'm wondering actually if college costs (which have been greatly outpacing inflation) will run into the same housing-price wall? I expect many parents sending kids to college in the last few years have paid for it via Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. Someone with real data should run those numbers.